Disclaimer The opinions expressed herein are my own personal opinions and do not represent my employer's view in any way.
I get asked "How do I win my election" all the time. There is no trick to it, figure out the number of people likely to vote in your election and divide by 2 then add 1. The famous “50% plus 1” rule. Then get that number of people to vote for you.
Then you need to start and figure out who will vote for you - keeping a tally. By the way Trail Blazer Campaign Manger helps you keep track of that information. You didn’t think I would not put in at least one plug, did you? So the day you start you should have a tally of at least 1 (you). Hopefully you have a few family and friends that have said they will vote for you. Build that number up by phone calling and going door to door. Be sure you have a visual way to keep that tally in front of you everyday of the campaign. You will want to make sure your tally contains variables for strong support and soft or leaning support. Remember to keep that database, you know - Trail Blazer J, up to date with that information. Another key don’t guess, ask them. Many people will say that they like you, be sure to ask “will you vote for me or my opponent”. In other words if they hedge they are not a strong supporter, mark them as only leaning to you.
If you are not a 3rd party or independent candidate you can skip to the last paragraph.
We work with a lot of 3rd party and independent candidates, the 50% plus 1 doesn’t always apply. One of the misunderstandings for these candidates is that if it is a three way race they need 33% plus 1. In some areas and elections this is true; see the Minnesota Governors race of 1998 for example. But in most cases the districts or wards or other political boundaries have been divided to give one party a “stronghold”. For example we, Trail Blazer, worked with a third party campaign in a district that was heavily one party, usually in presidential going as high as 70% and in congressional going on average in the 65% range for the primary party. The other, I’ll call it the minor party, getting 30-35% of the vote. You can’t win with 33% plus 1 in that race, the dominate party will get 34-40% because even if the dominant parties candidate is a sleaze ball with all kinds of negative press, most party loyalists will not “break ranks”. That goes for the minor parties candidate as well. The reasoning for this is a topic for another day.
So the math on this is a little fuzzy, but in my experience you should think like this if you take 40% of the dominant party’s support (at 65% of total) giving you 26% of total that leaves the dominant party with 39%. The next trick is doing the same to the minor party. If you can get the same percent (which is an unlikely feat given you have appealed to the dominant party’s support) from the minor party (at 35% of total) you will have 14% of the total, giving you 40%. That percent or some reasonable assimilation should be used to get your target voter count. It is also a pretty nice trick if you can pull it off. By the way with the dominant party's base level of support at 70% of the vote, and you only getting 40% of the dominant party's and minor partys support it really is not winnable, using math.
In conclusion to win an election you need to know how many people will vote and how many it will take to win. Tally and keep track of everyone that will vote for you, keeping in mind that you will need to have a plan for the last days and hours of your election. In most circles that plan is called the GOTV (Get out the Vote) plan. So keep those people tallied and marked in your database as supporters will be the key to that plan.
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